Looking Into 2013 Source: Ross Pruitt, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness LSU AgCenter
As the year draws to a close, the sense of déjà vu for the cattle markets is very real as many of the issues present at the close of 2012 remain from the end of 2011. The most pressing of these issues is obviously the drought that expanded from the Southern Plains in 2011 into the Corn Belt this past summer. While there was some relief for the Southern Plains earlier this year, the drought has re-intensified in that region with portions of the Corn Belt still waiting for significant moisture. Rainfall is needed not only to replenish soil moisture, but also stock ponds. Longer range forecasts do not provide room for much optimism, but Mother Nature is always full of surprises.
One consequence of the drought is postponing the beginning of expansion in the beef industry at least another year, if not two. Given the decline in beef cow culling this year (year-to date 12.8% lower than a year ago), the lack of pasture likely will be reflected in heifer retention rates which will not be known until early February when the next USDA inventory is released. Federally Inspected (FI) heifer slaughter is down approximately 5% through the end of October, but this does not suggest that enough heifers are being retained to stabilize the number of beef cows in the country. At the very least, it reflects the cumulative effect of nearly 1.5 million fewer calves being born over the past three years. The calf crop for 2013 might be 500,000 to 700,000 head fewer than the estimated 34.5 million born in 2012 which will tighten supplies even more than they are.
Early price forecasts for next year are only a few dollars higher than what prices for 2012 will likely average. However, that’s only an average for all classes of cattle. Value-added marketing programs have the potential for prices that are higher than current forecasts. If you have not been involved in one of these programs in the past, next year might be an opportune time to alter marketing and production strategies to as buyers scramble to fill orders. Consumer demand for beef may be skittish, but those programs will not want to lose ground to their competitors resulting in increased price competition for cattle that fit their needs.
Regardless of what happens with the weather, beef packers’ margins continue to be constrained by high prices for fed cattle and flat boxed beef prices. There is the very real possibility that 2013 will result in packers announcing reduced slaughter operations to help improve their profitability by slowing the amount of beef that will be available in the marketplace. The effect of reduced slaughter levels will negatively impact cattle prices, but packers are still operating in an environment with tight cattle supplies that will limit how much downward price pressure can be exerted. Even if packers reduce slaughter levels, higher fed cattle prices next year will occur. Further clouding the outlook is this week’s ruling by the World Trade Organization that the U.S. must align its mandatory country of origin labeling (mCOOL) into compliance by late May 2013. Failure to comply with the order would open the possibility for Canada and Mexico to place tariffs on U.S. products entering those countries. How to change the requirements to meet WTO standards is up in the air. Recent research calls into question whether there were any benefits from mCOOL and how tight supplies of livestock impact the market (see the In the Cattle Markets from November 19th). Given that Congress is focused on at least the Farm Bill and the fiscal cliff, this topic will not gather much attention for some time. Time is present to make changes to the rule, but it might be early May before a resolution is found. Much has been written about the drought impacts on the price of feedstuffs that will also play a factor in all livestock and poultry production through at least September 2013. The latest winter forecasts are indicating better than equal chance for above average temperatures. Given the currently high price of feedstuffs, a severe winter could result in higher prices to ration available feedstuffs. National non-alfalfa hay prices were $2/ton lower in November ($144/ton) than the record high set in May and October of this year. Seasonal price patterns would suggest hay prices will move higher over the next few months. Over 2.3 million acres were put back into non-alfalfa hay production this year, but national yields are 200 pounds/acre lower than a year ago contributing to a forecasted increase of approximately 600,000 additional tons of hay to last the winter. Another unknown, as of now, is how much of this year’s hay production, combined with lower hay stocks from May 1st, have already been consumed. The past few years have re-emphasized the importance of forage which will not decrease in importance over the next few years. Balancing nutrition, stocking rates, and cost will be imperative to successful forage management. Fewer cattle will mean higher prices and potentially higher returns, but effective forage management could help result in greater returns through a reduced need to purchase costly feed and supplements. Being proactive in development, implementation, and utilization of forage management strategies is not limited to proper pasture management. It also includes managing stored forages properly by reducing wastage and harvesting forage to capture the maximum nutritional content. An increased focus on forage management does not suggest the cattle feeding industry will completely disappear, but it will continue to experience changes that will open opportunities for cattlemen. Excess capacity in the packing and feedlot industry are still present and will sooner or later be addressed by the marketplace. For now, excellent cattle feeding weather has been experienced contributing to the better than year ago carcass weights. In spite of favorable conditions, USDA lowered beef production estimates by 600 million pounds during the course of 2012. This was not solely attributable to the number of cattle in feedlots, but declines in the number of placements in cattle will result significant beef production declines over the next few years as the herd stabilizes and then expands. While prices will be higher in 2013, early feeder cattle and calf price forecasts are not that much higher than levels experienced in 2012 for many of the reasons listed above. Significant moisture will be needed in many areas of the country to replenish stock ponds and pastures. It is not out of the realm of possibility that 2013 prices will be a reverse of 2012 (if moisture arrives): lower in the first half of the year and higher in the second half. Concerns about the health of the U.S. economy are also factoring into initial 2013 prices forecasts and leading to conservative estimates. While the topics discussed above are fairly certain to occur, there are a few things providing some uncertainty to the market, specifically demand. As of this writing, the lack of a deal to avert going over the fiscal cliff will result in higher income, payroll, capital gains, and estate taxes in 2013 combined with automatic reductions in federal spending. While Congress will eventually decide on a solution, the uncertainty in the interim will provide more uncertainty in a time when the economy is already fragile. Congress’s inability to pass at least a Farm Bill extension adds additional uncertainty, but there is still time before reversion to the permanent provisions in the 1949 Farm Bill significantly impacts the market.
Change is coming and as always the question is not so much are you ready, but how will you adapt. May you have a safe and joyous holiday season and 2013.