Year-to-Date U.S. Cattle Slaughter Rate, Dr. Ross Pruitt As 2011 began, expectations in the beef cattle industry were to see stabilization in the number of U.S. beef cows as producers held back heifers for replacements. It will be late July before indications of the heifer retention rate are known, but fewer beef cows have gone to market so far in 2011 compared to 2010. Through the first 20 weeks of the year, beef cow slaughter is down 4.4% from last year. However, year-to-date beef cow slaughter is 14.4% higher than the 2005-09 average. In order for there to be any expansion in the beef cow herd this year, everything had to go right, which has not been the case in 2011. The hardest-hit area by drought in 2011 has been the Southern Plains, and beef cow slaughter has reflected this. In the states of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas, year-to-date beef cow slaughter is 11.6% higher than last year.
Dairy cow slaughter has been higher this year in the United States and the region containing Louisiana. U.S. slaughter of dairy cows is 6.7% higher than last year and 20.2% greater than the 2005-09 average. Slaughter in the region containing Louisiana is 8.3% higher than last year. In spite of the struggle to stay profitable in the dairy industry, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service is reporting that 8,000 dairy cows were added to the milking herd during the month of April.
The impact of beef cow slaughter rates will provide additional support for cattle prices in the long run as the drought gripping Louisiana and most of the Southern Plains continues. The drought conditions will slow, if not stop, any chance for herd growth in the next few years. For dairy producers, any cost advantages that forage-based dairies had relative to grain-based dairies are being eroded as a result of the drought. Margins for feedlots and dairies will continue to be tight as stocks of grain are not expected to rebound with corn planted this year for the 2011-12 marketing year. Forage, when and where available, will provide a relatively cheaper source of gain for the foreseeable future.